Tips for Filling Out Your Brackets:

I would like all the diners at the Sandwich Shoppe to welcome "NorthernGuy". He is very well versed in NCAA Football and Basketball and over the next couple of weeks, he will be sharing his insights on the March Madness tournament. Here is his first installment...

Tips for filling out your brackets:
I have had moderate success at filling out my bracket year in and year out, and I have tried to document each lesson and try to come up with an overall concept. There are many types of pools; many have various weighing factors, so know what pool you’re entering, before submitting picks.

Concept #1:
Take the top 4 seeds in each bracket, establishing the way the committee saw the Top 16 teams in the Tournament. If you survive the 1st weekend you’re in the sweet 16. This is where I like to begin. Do all these teams belong in the top 16? Let’s look at some candidates who I believe are flawed:

1. Xavier had a tough finish; they went 4-4 in Conf play and were eliminated in the semi’s of the A-10
2. Wake Forest looked like world beaters before Mid January, and if they were going to hand out the trophy then, I wouldn’t have listed them. They look like a Turnover prone team that could get frustrated and unglued in the tournament.
3. Kansas falls under the defending champs, who are not going to win it all again this year, and once they realize this; the Jayhawks will come apart in the 2nd half of one of their 1st 2 games.

Concept #2:
Offense wins championships. Often I hear the talking heads at ESPN talking about Defensive Efficiency, and how important it is at this time of year, and it is, and I won’t down play it, but hear is the truth...Defence in basketball is predominately effort based, no matter what your playing, match, man, 1-3-1, 2-3, 3-2, box in 1, etc.... In this single elimination format, effort is always there and the difference in games is the guards who can break your zone, timely rebounding, and clutch shooting. The key stat in watching games is 5 or 6 minutes without a FG. Every time this happens you’re going home. If you score 60 points or less you are likely going home. If you are less than 20% from the arc, you’re going home. If you have more turnovers than the Pillsbury dough boy, you’re going home. If you’re not averaging 70 points a game, I can’t even look at you.

So how can you spot this? Here are the Offenses that look shaky and are primed for an upset:

1. Illinois, this is like taking candy from a baby. The Illini played a game where the final score (against a team that was on the bubble, and most people thought would have qualified in Penn St.) was 38-33. Also, Illinois is playing with injuries.

Here are other Offences that are not consistent enough:
Ohio St
Wisconsin
Michigan
Purdue
Minnesota
Florida St
USC
Arizona St.

Concept#3:
Picking your upsets. In many years, and this year in particular, I wouldn’t choose upsets from the 7-10 or 8-9 match ups, considering these winners will be playing the 1 seed or the 2 seed, and your coin is as good as mine. Most of us are aware of the success of the 5-12 game; I like the 6-11 games. There are 8.5 upsets per tournament. Use them wisely. It will pay off. Here are my upset selections:

#12 West Kentucky over #5 Illinois
#13 Portland St over #4 Xavier
#11 Utah St over #6 Marquette

Note: I really like VCU-UCLA upset, but everybody picked that, and generally I like to go against that much public sentiment. I loved Siena coming into the tournament, but Ohio St, practically at home? Then followed by Louisville? They would have been better off being a 11 or 12 seed. Both West Virginia and Arizona St could have a hard time from the A 10 entries but should survive.

I’ll be back after the weekend to pick the Big Boys and a National Champ.