Parity Reigns Supreme in the NFL

You wouldn't know it by looking at the NFL scoreboard this past weekend, but the two favourites to meet at the Super Bowl in New Orleans this February are the Houston Texans and the San Francisco 49ers.

This might not make sense to you since both of those teams were humiliated on Sunday, at home! The Texans were the victim of the Green Bay Packers. The Packers were the favourites to bring Lombardi home when the season started, but inconsistent performance from the MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers and a defense that was vulnerable and injured made the first 5 weeks of the season unbearable for cheeseheads. On Sunday though, the offense came to life and the defense, although still fighting through injuries, shut down the Texans running game.

The 49ers who were within a field goal of going to the Super Bowl last season were trying to avenge that playoff loss against the Giants. The New York Football Giants can't seem to get respect from the critics or bettors, despite being the defending champs. They went West and absolutely destroyed the 49ers. Jumping out to an early lead, forcing 49ers quarterback Alex Smith to play from behind and forcing him into turnovers. Then being relentless on offensive. Eli Manning keeps finding ways to hold his offense together finding a new receiver each week to star and a running game that grinds up the clock.

After reading those two paragraphs you might presume that the Packers and Giants should be 1 and 2 as Super Bowl favourites, but that's not how the league works this year. There are no teams that will challenge the unbeaten record of the 1972 Miami Dolphins, but each week there will be at least one team that looks like it belongs in the same breath. Usually you can narrow down the championship field to 4 or 5 teams, this year though, we are looking at 8 to 10. From that list we have to decide, the team with the least amount of faults.

8. Baltimore Ravens - Going through terrible injury crisis on defense but Joe Flacco has turned the corner as an elite quarterback

7. Denver Broncos - One word, Peyton. Although they seem to fall behind in each contest, they have the great equalizer in Peyton Manning.

6. Green Bay Packers - They seem to lack focus this season, Rodgers can't seem to stay focused for a full game (excluding Sunday) and the defense still needs to create turnovers.

5. New York Giants - As they have proven time and again, don't count them out. Playmakers like Victor Cruz and a defense that puts pressure on opponents. They also seem to play better on the road, bodes well for the playoffs.

4. Atlanta Falcons - Despite being the only undefeated team left, they have had some unimpressive wins and often play to the level of their competition. Matt Ryan has developed into an elite quarterback, but the running game which was reliable with Michael Turner has disappeared.

3a Houston Texans - Exposed by the Packers on Sunday, the Texans are still one of the elite AFC teams. Matt Schaub and Arian Foster lead an normally potent offense, but losing Brian Cushing for the season to an ACL tear puts some stress on the defense, JJ Watt will try to fill his big play shoes.

3b San Francisco 49ers - The major concern with the 49ers is how they would play if they fall behind. On Sunday they folded. The blame for the loss will fall squarely on the shoulders of Alex Smith since he is known as a game manager instead of a playmaker. They need him to be a playmaker to have a chance in February.

2. Chicago Bears - No team with Jay Cutler at quarterback will ever be ranked number one in one of my power polls.

1. New England Patriots - Did they lose on Sunday? Are they 3-3? Have they lost 3 games they should have won? Does Tom Brady look human again? The answer to all questions, yes. Do you still trust Brady and Coach Belichick in a meaningful January football game? YES

Cutler to the Bears

After the story broke earlier this week that the Denver Broncos were going to trade QB Jay Cutler many suitors lined up to present an offer. It did not take long for the Broncos to find the offer they liked. Chicago is the new home of Jay Cutler. The Bears needed to pony up two first round picks (2009 & 2010), a third rounder in 2009 and their starting QB from last season Kyle Orton to land Cutler and revive the Bears in a competitive NFC.

The Chicago Bears have been a franchise without a Pro Bowl quaterback since Jim McMahon led them to the Super Bowl in 1985. The acquisition of Cutler gives their fan base hope that they are moving in the right direction. Is it the right direction though?

Kyle Orton was the starting QB for two seasons in Chicago and leaves with a career 21-12 record. During his tenure he didn’t receive much help from playmakers on offence, as exemplified by his two leading receivers in 2008 being his rookie running back Matt Forte and tight end Gregg Olson. He was never given a big name receiver to work with, someone who could make the difficult catch in traffic or the big play in a crucial situation. Jay Cutler is walking into the same situation.

The Bears are still without a big play receiver for Cutler to get the ball to. Without someone to catch for him, it will be difficult to put up the kind of lofty numbers he did last season in Denver (4500+ yds and 25 td passes). By not making a play for a receiver during free agency and trading away their first round selection (where they were in line to pick a WR), the Bears offense will be limited in their play calling. Unless a young receiver like Rashied Davis can develop or Devin Hester can turn from a specialist to a full time receiver and not a gimmick playmaker, Cutler is likely to get frustrated with the system. Cutler will soon feel Orton’s pain, and Orton gets to reap the rewards of a new situation.

Kyle Orton walks into a situation in Denver with a QB genius for a coach, some young and talented offensive weapons (Marshall, Royal, Tatum Bell and Mike Bell) and a team with two high draft picks that will most likely be used to upgrade the defensive side of the ball, which had failed to deliver during Cutler’s tenure (Cutler was 13-1 in games where the Broncos surrendered 21 points or less). Although, Orton hasn’t filled the stat pages during his time in Chicago, he is being given a much better opportunity to do so in Denver.

While the Bears may reap the rewards of this trade long term as Cutler seems to be a better weapon, the Broncos will not struggle with Orton behind center and two high draft picks in the weaker AFC West.