Un-Lucky

With the NFL finishing its regular season, the teams on the outside looking in have the NFL draft to prepare for rather than their next opponent. The Carolina Panthers are the team that have the first selection in the draft. Since they finished last in the NFL they obviously have lots of needs, but throughout the college football season one player has stood out and would definitely help the team that drafts him - Stanford QB Andrew Luck.

Andrew Luck has the all the talents to be a great NFL QB and that is what made him so appealing to the Panthers who struggled through this season with a rookie QB who doesn't seem to have the moxie to be a starter in the NFL. Luck is a player who could have turned the franchise around similar to a Peyton Manning or Sam Bradford. Unfortunately for the Panthers and their fans, Luck being a college sophomore didn't have to declare for the NFL draft and decided this week that he would rather spend another year in college than turn pro. This has created a bunch of discussions and the majority of them didn't revolve around who the Panthers will now be taking in April's draft, they were about Luck's decision not to leave Stanford.

There are two sides to this argument, either he was right to stay in college or he should have turned pro. Those that say he was right to stay in college do so because Luck would have been drafted into a bad situation in the NFL (by going to Carolina) and therefore never would have reached his potential. Therefore he made the right decision by staying and waiting for the 2012 draft. The other argument for him staying in college was the uncertain NFL labour situation faces going into next season. With that cloud hanging over the league Luck would actually get to play next fall instead of hoping the league and the players association can come to an agreement.

The side arguing that he should have declared for the NFL draft has a much more compelling argument in my opinion. First, if you are ever the first overall pick in any draft, you are going to a bad team. Many players have turned franchises around whether it was the aforementioned Manning or Bradford in the NFL or players like LeBron James in the NBA or Sidney Crosby in the NHL. Going to Carolina wouldn't have been that bad for him. He would have had the patience of management and fans, also he would have been out of the media spotlight and therefore the pressure of playing in NY doesn't apply.

Luck says he decided to return to Stanford instead of pursuing the NFL because he wanted to finish his degree. This is an absolutely ridiculous statement. Many players have left school to play pro sports. The ones that do want to complete their education do so during the offseason. The prime example that comes to mind is Vince Carter. Carter returned to North Carolina to complete his education after getting drafted by the Toronto Raptors. There is always time to return to school. Even if Luck waited until he was done in the NFL (age 30-35), Stanford would still be there for him, its not like he was attending some online school.

If Luck really did stay for his education, he really needs to take some business courses. Since there is a good chance this NFL draft will be the last before some type of rookie wage scale is put in place (similar to the NBA), Luck is forfeiting approximately $22 million by staying at Stanford if the rookie cap gets put in place. He is also turning down a guaranteed $50 million dollars (approx) by staying at Stanford. No degree is worth that kind of money. With his first NFL contract he could have started a university and printed himself a degree.

So now that we know Luck really does need the education, why else should he have turned pro? His team will be worse than the Carolina Panthers next season. The Cardinals are losing several starters on offense and defense and won't be the same team that was 12-1 this season. Also, he is losing his coach - Jim Harbaugh who has decided to become the head coach for the San Francisco 49ers. Harbaugh was a former NFL QB himself and without that tutelage there is a big question whether Luck can have the same success without Harbaugh. The precedent for a QB staying and having success the following year is not good - look at the Matt Leinart situation. Leinart would have been the first overall pick in the draft, the following season at USC he struggled and dropped to number 10 in the draft, costing him millions. The potential for Luck to struggle next season is always there and not only struggle, but what if he gets injured? Playing with less talent around him it is always a possibility or if he tries to do too much and puts himself in harms way. Then he would really need his education and could only dream about how $50 million would have changed his life.

The window to be a professional athlete is very small and very few people have the chance to play at that level. If you are one of the lucky few, you need to take the opportunity when it presents itself.

NFL Mock Draft v16

Not even Mel Kiper or Todd McShay have done as much homework on the top 10 picks as I have...kidding, I basically looked at McShay's draft board, put my own little spin and snarky comments and voila. The only mock draft you need leading up to Thursday night will be below. I have only done the top 10 because after that, you are either too drunk or don't recognize the names of the players anymore.


1 St. Louis Rams – Sam Bradford – QB – Oklahoma
Although picking a QB at the top of the draft puts lots of pressure on the player, this is the best option for the Rams. A defensive tackle, no matter how dominant doesn’t lead and make the difference a good/great QB can.

2. Detroit Lions – Ndamukong Suh – DT – Nebraska
The Lions can’t really screw this up. They are taking a defensive lineman here who will be a difference maker and shore up the middle of their defense. Suh seems to be the consensus pick here over McCoy.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Gerald McCoy – DT – Oklahoma
The Bucs can’t really screw this up. They will take whichever DT is left on the board whether it is McCoy or Suh. McCoy fits better with their defensive scheme but either player will be a boost to the 3-13 team.

4. Washington Redskins – Bryan Bulaga – OT – Iowa
There was lots of talk of the Redskins taking a QB here, but that has all changed with the trade for Donovan McNabb. The ‘Skins will now protect him with Bulaga. Lots of speculation that he could bust like Robert Gallery, but he is more experienced and will be solid for years to come.

5. Kansas City Chiefs – Russell Okung – OT – Oklahoma State
The Chefs are building the proper way, from the OL out. They have their QB in Matt Cassel but he needs to be protected and Okung will do that for them.

6. Seattle Seahawks – Eric Berry – S – Tennessee
Although the Seahawks have lots of needs on the offensive side of the ball, they will elect to go defense here with a player who dominated at the combine and flashed all world skills while at Tennessee. Many teams in front and behind the Seahawks would love to get Berry, but no one is keen on paying a safety top 5 money.

7. Cleveland Browns – C.J. Spiller – RB - Clemson
The Browns (or whoever they trade down with) take the undisputed number 1 running back in the draft. He slipped past a few teams, but with the shallow pool of RB in the draft he is a wanted man. If the Browns aren’t able to trade the pick they really are intrigued by Texas safety Earl Thomas.

8. Oakland Raiders – Trent Williams – OT – Oklahoma
No one really knows what Al Davis and the Raiders will do with this pick, all everyone knows is that he loves workout warriors and that was Williams at the combine. So we’ll put the OT here and hope for the best.

9. Buffalo Bills – Jimmy Clausen – QB – Notre Dame
Although it isn’t Tim Tebow the Bills do draft a QB to add to the position battle in training camp. Fans will love Clausen once they seem him play. He has the “blue collar” work ethic that goes over so well in Buffalo. He will remind fans of Doug Flutie and although he won’t solve the OL holes, he might make them look less daunting with his mobility.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars – Derrick Morgan – DE – Georgia Tech
The Jags need lots of help and Clausen was definitely on their draft board, but they will go for the pass rushing of Morgan. A great pass rusher is now a requirement to be competitive in the NFL (especially the AFC) and Morgan will give them a great compliment to free agent acquisition Aaron Kampman.

Other Potential Top 10 Picks
Dan Williams – NT – Tennessee
The 3rd best defensive lineman might go higher than expected if one team really wanted help and can’t wait for round 2.
Jason Pierre-Paul – DE – South Florida
Another pass rushing option for teams looking to put pressure on the QB more effectively.
Anthony Davis – OT – Rutgers
Davis might be an option for the Bills who really need to improve the OL and he is a stretch at number 9, but the talent really drops at OT after him.

Names To Know

With the NFL draft now just 4 days away and lots of prospects and mock drafts for everyone to work through, here is one player that might have gotten overlooked but in my opinion will make it work at the next level.

Oregon Running Back LeGarrette Blount

Best known for throwing a punch at a Boise State player during the Thursday night home opener last season, being suspended for the season, and then apologizing enough that Oregon let him back to play for the last couple of games and the bowl game.

In those short opportunities he made quite an impression on fans, and hopefully on scouts. A big running back at 6' feet and 240 lbs. he would be a good second option for teams that feature a smaller scat back (like San Diego). With his size he really hasn't had any injury problems, he just had trouble staying on the field because of attitude issues, both on and off the field.

More was expected of him at the NFL Combine. He ran a very poor 40 yard dash time (4.74 sec.) and finished middle of the running back pack in the other tests.

As mentioned, he is a big back and therefore won't go down on first contact. You might compare him to someone like Giants Brandon Jacobs, the only difference would be the break away speed after knocking over a defensive back. He does everything well, just not excellent, but in the right system and if he is able to mature slightly he could be a great piece to the puzzle of a contender.

Blount is ranked as the 11th running back in a very shallow draft at the position. He has the name recognition some of the other backs don't, mainly for negative reasons, but look for him to be drafted in the 3rd or 4th round, but will have a better chance to contribute than most of the backs drafted ahead of him.

My NFL Combine

The National Football League is now a 12 month a year endeavor. Fans get the pre-season, regular season, and the play-offs that culminate in the Super Bowl. After the Super Bowl you would think you get a break until August. Not the case anymore. We now have the NFL Combine, the NFL Draft, optional team workouts (which aren't that optional) and before you know it, we are back to training camp and the pre-season.

The details of the off-season, once reserved for the NFL insider and media are now free to follow for anyone with the NFL network or the internet. One of the most entertaining parts of the off-season is the NFL Combine. This is where we get to watch the future of the NFL participate in drills to prove their future worth. Now, this is all televised of course.

I figured what better way to get involved then to participate in the NFL Combine myself. Since the NFL didn't offer me an invitation to test my skills, I thought I would do this on my own and document for you.

Here are my NFL Combine details.

Name: Benjamin Trattner
School: Acadia University (Nova Scotia, Canada)
Height: 6 feet 1.5 inch
Weight: 261 lbs

Overview:
Benjamin arrived at Acadia as a versatile lineman. Able to play on both the offensive and defensive line in High School. He joined the Axeman defensive line where he progressed slowly his freshman year. Week 6 of his freshman season, he injured his knee in practice. After rehab alone was not successful, arthroscopic surgery repaired meniscus damage. An MRI later that year revealed a tear of the ACL and he had reconstruction surgery in July before his sophomore season. This ended the dream of being a lineman, but not before two more surgeries to repair damage to the knee, re-injured in comeback attempts. Benjamin became the the kicker and punter at Acadia during his junior and senior seasons. Retiring from competitive football in 2001.

Analysis:
Strengths - A strong leg, evidenced by his career long field goal of 57 yards. High football IQ. Tremendous upside potential.

Weaknesses - Slow footed. One scout described being able to time him "with a sun dial". Needs more focus when lining up for short to middle distance field goal attempts.

Test Results

40-yard dash
The 40-yard dash is the marquee event at the combine. These athletes are timed at 10, 20 and 40-yard intervals. What the scouts are looking for is an explosion from a static start.

40yd - not applicable
10yd - 1.91 seconds

Bench press
The bench press is a test of strength -- 225 pounds, as many reps as the athlete can get. What the NFL scouts are also looking for is endurance.

225 lbs for 5 repetitions

Vertical
The vertical jump is all about lower-body explosion and power. The athlete stands flat-footed and they measure his reach.

Attempt 1 - 12.25 inches
Attempt 2 - 13.25 inches


Broad jump
The broad jump is like being in gym class back in junior high school. The athlete starts out with a stance balanced and then he explodes out as far as he can.

Attempt 1 - 73.25 inches
Attempt 2 - 77.25 inches

Well Rich Eisen, am I at least a day 3 prospect?

Dancing, Dancing...

In a photo shoot for the NFL rookies, Upper Deck held a TD dance contest with the winner walking (dancing?) away with an autographed Michael Jordan jersey (don't they have a licensing deal with any football greats?).

Check out the video here. (H/T - SI hot clicks)

In other dancing news - Erin Andrews wants to be on Dancing With the Stars. I have never really watched, but this might make me learn the salsa...

NFL Mock Draft

Figured since I am going to be on the draft floor, might as well throw my hat in the ring and write a mock draft. I will limit it to the top 11 picks so I don't look like a big loser.

1. Detroit Lions - Matthew Stafford - QB - Georgia
The Lions will take another QB of the future at the top of 2009 draft. The Georgia QB might not be the top pick in other drafts, but the Lions need a franchise player and Stafford will try to be that player.

2. St. Louis Rams - Jason Smith - OT - Baylor
The Rams have many gaps on both sides of the ball at the moment, but the last time they were good, they started by drafting a franchise LT (Orlando Pace), and this seems like a good place to start over.

3. KC Chiefs - Aaron Curry - DE - Penn St.
In desperate need of another pass rushing lineman since the loss of Jared Allen. One of the best athletes in the draft he will make the players around him better including last year's first round selection DL Glenn Dorsey.

4. Seattle Seahawks - Matt Sanchez - QB - USC
Sanchez has been climbing draft boards, and many pundits consider him better than Stafford, but with only one year starting at USC, he might not be ready for prime time that the Lions need. The Seahawks can let Sanchez learn for a year or two under Matt Hasselbeck, and that will make him the choice here.

5. Cleveland Browns - Brian Orakpo - DE - Texas
The Browns have many needs and there has been much talk about trading WR Braylon Edwards. If that happens they opt to go WR, but defence wins championships and Orakpo will complement big body Shaun Rodgers well in the trenches.

6. Cincinnati Bengals - Eugene Monroe - OT - Virgina
The Bengals get a gift here with Monroe falling to them at #6. Once again, the Bengals had success when they had a franchise left tackle (Anthony Munoz) and they hope that Monroe can be that guy for them. The other OT available is Andre Smith, but after he had problems during the scouting combine and at his Alabama pro day, the Bengals who have had some bad personalities lately would be good to stay away from him.

7. Oakland Raiders - Jeremy Maclin - WR - Missouri
Al Davis no matter how old loves speed and therefore Maclin will be the guy for the Raiders. He will be a great target for JaMarcus Russel or new QB Jeff Garcia. He needs to the playmaker for the Oakland team and bring a spark back to the black hole.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars - BJ Raji - DT - Boston College
Until two days ago the Jags were looking to take a wide receiver, probably Michael Crabtree, but after the acquisition of Torry Holt, choosing a WR can probably wait till the second round. Instead they will go with Boston College big man BJ Raji to solidify the defence against tough running AFC oppenents.

9. Green Bay Packers - Andre Smith - OT - Alabama
Although defence is probably a greater need, the Packers go oline to protect their greatest investment - QB Aaron Rodgers. Even though Smith had the problems during the combine and pro day, look for the tradition and hard working veteran tackle like Mark Tauscher to groom Andre Smith into a pro bowl caliber tackle.

10. San Francisco 49ers - Michael Crabtree - WR - Texas Tech
The 49ers started the "system" team phenomenon with the west coast offence, so drafting a "system" wide receiver shouldn't be a problem for them. Crabtree will make whoever is the QB in San Francisco that much better.

11. Buffalo Bills - Michael Oher - OT - Ole Miss
The Bills continue to add name recognition to their roster by taking Oher. The subject of Michael Lewis's 2006 book Blind Side, he has disappointed slightly as Ole Miss as he wasn't as dominant as expected. Still a great run blocker, he will need to improve his pass blocking some, but he will immediately fill the spot vacated by Jason Peters who was recently traded to Philadelphia.

Other Notable first round players that could move up into the top 11;
Everette Brown - DE - Florida St. - Could be a one year college wonder, so teams are being a little cautious.
Tyson Jackson - DE - LSU - Another pass rusher that could help 3-4 defenses.
Beanie Wells - RB - Ohio St. - A big back with speed, will help whoever drafts him. He will most likely be the first RB taken.
Josh Freeman - QB - Kansas St. - A big QB with potential. More likely will go in the 15-20 range, but he has caught the eye of the 49ers, also he was invited to NY to attend the draft so maybe the NFL knows something the rest of us don't.
Clay Matthews - LB - USC - Matthews comes from great football pedigree and will make some team very happy in the mid first round.

NFL - To Attend or Not to Attend

The 2009 NFL draft is happening this Saturday and Sunday in New York City. Over the two days, almost 300 college football players will be selected to join the ranks of the professionals in the NFL. This selection into the NFL is a culmination of years of hard work, discipline and determination.

Although this is one of the biggest days of their young lives, most of the players being selected will not be in New York during the draft. Instead, many of them stay home, go fishing or hang out with their coaches at school waiting for that fateful phone call from a coach or GM to tell them they have been selected and will have a chance to play in the NFL in 2009.

In fact a total of nine prospects are going to be in New York, and the NFL is touting this as the most since 1996. Of the players showing up, two have a chance to be in the green room for an extended period of time, Josh Freeman QB from Kansas State and Michael Oher, Offensive Tackle from Mississippi. Both of these players have been climbing draft boards of the experts, but could just as easily spend most of the first round backstage without hearing their named called. This might be one reason more players don’t attend the draft – sitting backstage or in the crowd and not getting your name called as early as you thought is hard on the ego and potentially could be quite demoralizing.

But don’t the benefits outweigh the possibility of waiting around for an extra hour? Having fans cheer you as you make your way up to the stage, getting to shake the commissioners hand, and putting on your draft hat are things you would never forget. This is what you have worked so hard at and wouldn’t you want to be recognized for your skills? Being in New York for the draft, whether I was invited or not would be something I would need to do.

As a former University player, my dreams of walking up to the podium were extinguished pretty quickly due to injuries, and a lack of skill. Even so, after four years of playing my name was entered into pool of potential draftees of the CFL. I was excited just to see that, and if the CFL draft had been a public event instead of a conference call from the offices in Toronto I would have been there.

Live coverage of the draft starts Saturday at 4pm. I’ll be in New York attending the Draft – as a spectator, not a draftee, and will give you all my thoughts and opinions from the draft floor.