Un-Lucky

With the NFL finishing its regular season, the teams on the outside looking in have the NFL draft to prepare for rather than their next opponent. The Carolina Panthers are the team that have the first selection in the draft. Since they finished last in the NFL they obviously have lots of needs, but throughout the college football season one player has stood out and would definitely help the team that drafts him - Stanford QB Andrew Luck.

Andrew Luck has the all the talents to be a great NFL QB and that is what made him so appealing to the Panthers who struggled through this season with a rookie QB who doesn't seem to have the moxie to be a starter in the NFL. Luck is a player who could have turned the franchise around similar to a Peyton Manning or Sam Bradford. Unfortunately for the Panthers and their fans, Luck being a college sophomore didn't have to declare for the NFL draft and decided this week that he would rather spend another year in college than turn pro. This has created a bunch of discussions and the majority of them didn't revolve around who the Panthers will now be taking in April's draft, they were about Luck's decision not to leave Stanford.

There are two sides to this argument, either he was right to stay in college or he should have turned pro. Those that say he was right to stay in college do so because Luck would have been drafted into a bad situation in the NFL (by going to Carolina) and therefore never would have reached his potential. Therefore he made the right decision by staying and waiting for the 2012 draft. The other argument for him staying in college was the uncertain NFL labour situation faces going into next season. With that cloud hanging over the league Luck would actually get to play next fall instead of hoping the league and the players association can come to an agreement.

The side arguing that he should have declared for the NFL draft has a much more compelling argument in my opinion. First, if you are ever the first overall pick in any draft, you are going to a bad team. Many players have turned franchises around whether it was the aforementioned Manning or Bradford in the NFL or players like LeBron James in the NBA or Sidney Crosby in the NHL. Going to Carolina wouldn't have been that bad for him. He would have had the patience of management and fans, also he would have been out of the media spotlight and therefore the pressure of playing in NY doesn't apply.

Luck says he decided to return to Stanford instead of pursuing the NFL because he wanted to finish his degree. This is an absolutely ridiculous statement. Many players have left school to play pro sports. The ones that do want to complete their education do so during the offseason. The prime example that comes to mind is Vince Carter. Carter returned to North Carolina to complete his education after getting drafted by the Toronto Raptors. There is always time to return to school. Even if Luck waited until he was done in the NFL (age 30-35), Stanford would still be there for him, its not like he was attending some online school.

If Luck really did stay for his education, he really needs to take some business courses. Since there is a good chance this NFL draft will be the last before some type of rookie wage scale is put in place (similar to the NBA), Luck is forfeiting approximately $22 million by staying at Stanford if the rookie cap gets put in place. He is also turning down a guaranteed $50 million dollars (approx) by staying at Stanford. No degree is worth that kind of money. With his first NFL contract he could have started a university and printed himself a degree.

So now that we know Luck really does need the education, why else should he have turned pro? His team will be worse than the Carolina Panthers next season. The Cardinals are losing several starters on offense and defense and won't be the same team that was 12-1 this season. Also, he is losing his coach - Jim Harbaugh who has decided to become the head coach for the San Francisco 49ers. Harbaugh was a former NFL QB himself and without that tutelage there is a big question whether Luck can have the same success without Harbaugh. The precedent for a QB staying and having success the following year is not good - look at the Matt Leinart situation. Leinart would have been the first overall pick in the draft, the following season at USC he struggled and dropped to number 10 in the draft, costing him millions. The potential for Luck to struggle next season is always there and not only struggle, but what if he gets injured? Playing with less talent around him it is always a possibility or if he tries to do too much and puts himself in harms way. Then he would really need his education and could only dream about how $50 million would have changed his life.

The window to be a professional athlete is very small and very few people have the chance to play at that level. If you are one of the lucky few, you need to take the opportunity when it presents itself.